When you find an opportunity do you ever check the weather forecast before placing a bet? If you don’t, it isn’t for superstition purposes, it’s for strategic reasons and if you’re not checking the weather you might be missing a trick. Including the weather forecast in your pre-game analysis is quite important as weather conditions affect a lot of different aspects of a game that the players cannot control.
What aspects can Weather affect?
- Pitch Condition
- Player Psychology
- Player Stamina
- Goal Opportunity
These are all aspects that can be the difference between a wasted bet and a winner so you want to keep this in mind. The average bettor tends to ignore weather conditions, and we’ll explain why they do.
There are plenty of theories online that discuss how weather conditions affect matches, in fact, there are theories about how it affects people in general. If it is raining you can’t expect teams to perform as they would normally, most likely you’ll get a goalless match which might be a draw. It’s very hard to predict, so if there are showers I wouldn’t bet on any first-half goals if I was you! This is because when it’s raining, players are playing on a muddy football pitch, they’re less agile and less mobile and you might see more of a passing game than any performing plays. Wrongly timed sliders, poor performing clearances and a slippery ball just don’t make the most prosperous games. What could’ve been a save might be a slipping disaster for a goalie.
A typical punter doesn’t realise that the matches are in different places in the world, sure it might be quite mild in the UK but the games might be played somewhere in Europe or the middle east where different parameters must be taken into account. Taking a glance out of your winder doesn’t really cut it anymore due to globalisation, that doesn’t mean you need to watch the weather, but just have a quick glance at where the game is being taken place and check the weather. If there are no showers expected, or gales then you should be fine.
But don’t think just because it’s raining it is all doom and gloom. Some Football teams are used to rain and depending on where the teams home town is, they may be more resilient and used to certain conditions. So here’s our advice. If you should focus on the weather, look out for unexpected conditions like heat in Russia, snow in Spain, rain in Algeria or blinding sun in England. Watch out when players are not accustomed to playing under such conditions. 13 degrees Celcius would be considered cold for a North African team and hot for a Danish team.
Rain is also a common dissuasive factor when it comes to football, but you should take into account where it is ACTUALLY raining. It’s not only about the familiarity with the conditions but also about the pitch condition. A rain, even a heavy one, would hardly affect an English Premier League club’s pitch, but at the same time, a few drops of rain can easily turn an English League Two club’s turf into a mudfest. Of course, there are exceptions, but that’s where your common sense needs to come into play, the general rule is that the lower you go into league rankings, the greater effect weather has on the style of play.
Keep in mind that weather conditions can affect the performance of individual players as well, not just a team. Some delicate midfield players are not happy when it’s raining, as they find it difficult to give their splitting passes or make their elegant dribbles. On the opposite side, stronger players, will take advantage of their huge body especially when chasing the ball, find it easy to play in rain, as their slowed-down opponent’s become more vulnerable.
We take so many factors into consideration when trying to predict the result of a football match but I feel many people overlook environmental factors like the weather. Of course, they’re not the only factor, there are hundreds, but this is one of those that can help you back out of a loser that you thought was a winner.
It is debatable whether or not bad weather might actually lead to more goals; some suggest that aerial balls become harder to deal with in high winds and also results in less accurate crosses and passes and should therefore make it harder for teams to string a decent move together.
Of course, if the wind is the only problem then teams may opt to keep the ball on the surface; that does suit some teams but it doesn’t suit others. Teams like Arsenal would not mind that at all as it compliments their style anyway. Bad surfaces though would be tough for the Gunners and we see that a lot in FA Cup matches when top sides visit lower-league opposition whose pitches are not of the same quality. This plays into the hands of the home side and is often a big factor in giant killings.
The same thing happens in leagues too. Bradford City for example are a team that have a lot of tall and physical players and have excelled on their tough and bobbly pitch at Valley Parade for a few years; it’s not unreasonable to suggest that this success has come because they are better in the air than most of their guests.
With all of this information to hand, you could develop a strategy where you rated teams in their ability to play in bad weather conditions and which types of conditions suited or didn’t suit them to try and work out the result of matches as well as how many goals would be scored.