Bet in High-Quality Leagues
To make betting more predictable you need to stay in high-quality league betting markets, otherwise betting gets too unreliable. Football is popular globally, not just in England, so if you’re scouting odds on a bookies website, you’ll surely find international matches in Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam and many other countries. But even if the odds are attractive you’d be better to stay in Leagues such as the Premier or Bundesliga as they have higher levels of predictability, have been running for a while and you’ll have an easier time analysing matchups.
In High-Quality leagues every team is quite good, the top teams are far more predictable than lower league teams where performance can be too random to make an educated bet.
Bet on Leagues You Know
As well as sticking to high-quality leagues, you should also only stick to leagues you know well enough to feel confident in their performance. There are plenty of high-quality leagues across Europe with seasoned teams that perform well but if you have no idea about them, don’t bet on them. A vital part of any sports betting is knowing what you’re backing, if you have no clue what you’re backing how can you feel confident in what you’re putting your money to, you wouldn’t know how a team performs in certain situations if you were just introduced to them!
Sure statistics might fill in for the lack of your knowledge, but statistics and research are only going to take you so far, statistics and facts can be looked at in many ways and is subjective to the bettor. Blindly following statistics without any experience may lead you to see things in a way that is completely different from reality. To get a complete picture you need human knowledge that statistics can’t provide, the algos are just not that smart enough yet!
We repeat this a lot but Patience is extremely important to winning your first £1000 in Sports Betting. Sometimes we know something is a bad bet but can’t resist the temptation to place a stake, but this is a great way to set yourself up for failure.
You want to be able to analyse the conditions until they’re more suitable, even if that means you’re waiting days for that opportunity. Money isn’t easy to come by and so you want to make sure your bets are edged towards you.
There is no point taking pointless gambles in the hope of winning something when the chances are far too slim to bother. Whether it takes weeks or days, it doesn’t matter, don’t bet unless the fixtures are suitable!
Use Safe Selections
Making your first £1000 betting is hard because you’re learning the ropes. Part of learning the ropes is sticking to safe selections, it is tempting to take on more risk as your bankroll grows but you want to keep your risk level the same throughout your first £1000.
Odds reflect the chance of an outcome happening, so if a team is 10.00 to win then that is because they have a very small chance of winning. Chasing those bigger odds and becoming more profit-hungry over time are easy vices that can stomp on your road to your first £1000 profit. Instead keep it structured, safe and choose bets that you feel are almost guaranteed to happen, but at the same time riskier enough to actually make something on and still worthwhile. You want to be looking for what feels like a good bet, with good odds and not have the large odds be your sole driving factor for placing the bet.
Bet in Markets You Know
You don’t need to be in hundreds of markets to make your first £1000 profit. In fact, you can do it in 1, so in the same way that there are hundreds of high-quality leagues, there are plenty of markets to choose from as well, but you won’t be able to learn every market as a beginner, instead stick to a market you feel confident in and avoid markets that have lots of big odds or inviting selections.
Do you normally bet on Draw No Bet? That’s fine, stay with it. There is no need to start betting on Asian Handicaps and ACCA’s when you haven’t mastered that first. Your mental focus is part of your gambling success, if you are drawn in so many different directions, by so many markets, you’re most likely to trip up and fall, make a mistake and wipe your bankroll chasing the next best odds.
By far the best advice is to stick to the simple markets that are easy to find good odds on and that you are comfortable with. Obvious examples are Match Results, Draw No Bet or Over/Under Total Match Goals. These are easy to find with most bookies, easy to grasp and, with so many games to choose from, easy to get decent odds on.
Work Out The Incentive Levels
What is the incentive for a team to win? If Manchester is playing home and needs to beat a recently dominating opponent, you can bet they will be going the extra mile to win the game. If the game is just a filler, with no deciding factors after the match as they’ve already won overall, a team may not play as well.
It’s important to assess these situations as athletes are humans as well and won’t be motivated to play to their top every game, that would be extremely exhausting. Therefore you must make a judgement on how important the game is to a team, as that is correlated with how likely your bet is to win.
When Was The Last Match Played?
Following up with the previous tip, players get fatigued mentally and physically, so tiredness plays a huge role in sports betting and which team you feel confident betting. You’ll start to see fatigue creep into teams as seasons start to end, this is where substitutes can start coming in to replace tired players, which should be a red flag for you!
Make sure the team you are backing isn’t slowing down, check when they last played, if they’ve had enough rest to recover from injuries or just playing games and if you feel confident that they’ll perform at their best.
If you don’t feel confident, perhaps look at who they’re matched against and you might find an opportunity to place a bet against your original pick.
Check The Recent Form
Linking to tiredness, you should also check the recent form of a team. You want to find a team with good form, who is winning and is not on a bad run and you feel confident that they’ll perform similarly in the next matchup.
You can check recent form on plenty of statistical websites and whilst it shouldn’t be the sole driving force for you to place a bet, it is something you should take into consideration. There is no point betting on a team who is tilting hard recently, the chances are that they’ll do the same until there are some changes or they get well-rested.
Avoid The Bad Weather
The elements can make matches incredibly unpredictable, even if you have full confidence in a team, nature can make outcomes far too random to make an educated bet.
From gales in Golf, to rain in Football and Horse Racing, bad weather makes games too unpredictable beyond the understanding of a human mind, so if the weather is bad, even if the betting opportunity is looking great, you’d be better to skip the bet or at least extremely minimise your stake.
We’ve mentioned before about staying patient and this is one of those times it pays to stay patient enough to wait for predictable bets you feel are guaranteed wins.
Bank Your Initial Stake
It’s a no brainer to bank your initial stake. In order to decrease your risks of losing hard-earned money, once you have doubled your money you should bank the initial stake. This will be hard to do for beginners as it essentially means you’re starting again from scratch, but it’s a wise move as your money is now safe from losses and you can start betting from your profit.
Betting with your profit has several advantages over betting with money you feel is your own. But the main advantages are that you’ll feel less stress to chase losses, you’ll feel less punishment when you’ve made a bad bet and you’ll release a lot of pressure and be able to enjoy the process better which can make you far more logical than emotional subconsciously and allow you to look at the complete picture far easier as your mind is not clouded by a scarcity mindset to claw in as much profit as possible.
In essence, by doing this you are then playing with ‘free’ money you didn’t have anyway and that’s powerful as it proves the process is working and allows you to focus more logically and strategically.
Trust Your Instinct
Once you’ve put some of these best practices into your betting process, you can start to gain more experience, use these tips automatically and start to trust your instincts. You might of been told that trusting your instincts isn’t reliable and that’s true if you have little knowledge and experience to back it. That doesn’t mean you stop doing your research as that is incredibly important in able to build a clear picture of your betting opportunities, but as a bettor who has trained best practices into his process you’ll be able to trust yourself a little more, if you’re not feeling confident, skip the bet and if you know you have a very low chance of winning, then there is no point bothering to bet, even if you spent hours researching a match, you might feel forced to bet, but don’t, instead just cut your losses and draw it up to experience.
Of course, to use your instinct like this, you need to be betting on leagues and markets you are familiar with. You will not have your instinct to fall back on as a final check with a league you know nothing about. So you need experience before you trust your instincts!
And only follow your instincts after you’ve actually analysed a bet enough to get a well-rounded picture of the possible outcomes.
Avoid Teams With New Managers
When Teams have new managers, it doesn’t mean the manager is going to ruin the team, but it makes the team incredibly unpredictable, throughout this article we’re looking for predictable wins that can be backed accurately by previous figures. That’s why backing teams with a new manager isn’t advised at all, a new manager might come in with new fresh ideas, strategies and formations that the team may not synergise well with off the bat.
We don’t know if the performance of a team will increase or decrease, simply said, no one knows what will happen to a team under a new manager, there is no degree of certainty and therefore you want to avoid teams like this like the plague until they build up some more games that you can look back on in your researching phase.
Avoid Friendly Games
We’ve mentioned before about the incentives a team might have, and part of an incentive is competitive football, but friendly matches have very little incentive for either team which makes them incredibly unpredictable and too risky to bet on. With friendly games, teams might be trying different strategies, forms and putting in new players to see how they synergise with the rest of the team. For teams, friendly games are not that serious and so that makes it incredibly hard to formulate an educated bet.
We suggest you give friendly games a miss and just stick to high-quality competitive leagues.
Keep Your Fingers Crossed!
Even after all of this advice, like with anything in life, nothing is guaranteed today or tomorrow or the next day, and everything has an element of randomness, all you can do is stay consistent, logical and focus on moving in the right direction, to making your first £1000 from sports betting.
So yes, with gambling you’ll need a bit of luck to get you some wins, but with all this advice you’ll be able to draw luck in your favour.